“Change is constant. Complexity is all around us. There is Chaos in the world…though perhaps less than we perceive. The best we can do is to be more aware of the interactions between all of us, and as adaptative as we possibly can.”
— Ronn Lehmann
Doesn’t it feel as though today’s world is one of constant change, increasing complexity, and looming chaos? No wonder we often long for simpler times. But until they return (SPOILER ALERT: they ain’t gonna), it might be worth taking a closer look at each of these phenomena.
Let’s start with Change. History, while perhaps not providing comfort, might at least provide some illumination.
2500 years ago, the Greek philosopher Heraclitus opined, “There is nothing permanent except change.” He viewed the world as constantly in flux, always “becoming” but never “being.” He expressed this in snappy sayings like “Everything flows” and “No man ever steps in the same river twice.”
His belief in the constancy of change contrasts with that of Parmenides, another Greek philosopher who was a slightly younger contemporary of Heraclitus, and thought the old guy was full of it.
Parmenides believed in a reality of static “being” with two views of reality, which he dubbed The Way of Truth and The Way of Opinion. In the Way of Truth, all reality is one, change is impossible, and existence is timeless and uniform. The Way of Opinion describes the world of appearances, in which one’s sensory faculties lead to conceptions that are false and deceitful.
It’s important to note that the statements from these two characters are what Law & Order fans would regard as “hearsay.” Neither of them took the time to write much down; they wrote only one work each, of which only fragments survived. What was claimed that they believed or said has been handed down through the centuries as stories told and citations made by subsequent philosophers.
Legions of folks have made their bones by attempting to chronicle, decipher, and re-interpret these guys, from the likes of Plato and Aristotle right through to contemporary philosophers. And whatever you think of what Heraclitus and Parmenides allegedly thought, as legacy goes, that ain’t nothin’.
I’m Team Heraclitus for the most part. I experience the world as less static and more in flux. And, I buy into the Physics idea that the four fundamental forces of nature (Gravity, Electromagnetism, The Strong Nuclear Force, and The Weak Nuclear Force) are responsible for interactions that can result in Change. Ergo, since those forces are constant, so is Change.
Your view may be more Parmenides-adjacent. I’m cool with that.
Now then, what of Complexity? Well, what indeed? Complexity characterizes the behavior of a system whose components interact in multiple ways and follow local rules, leading to non-linearity, randomness, collective dynamics, hierarchy, and emergence. Whew!
Here’s another way to think about all that. We often use the words “Complicated” and “Complex” interchangeably. But they are distinct. For example, flying on a plane is complicated. Air Traffic Control is complex.
It’s important to recognize the differences. First, complicated systems can be addressed using linear thinking and have defined solutions, while complex systems require navigating through unknowns and have undefined solutions.
Furthermore, a fundamental characteristic of complex systems is Emergence, which describes how complex behaviors and properties can arise from the interactions of simpler units. Or to uncomplicate it a bit, “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”
Here’s an example, courtesy of Dr. Brian Klass, who studies such things.
A Swiss watch is complicated but not complex. It has a lot of interlocking parts, all of which need to work for the watch to perform its function. But it doesn’t adapt within the system if something breaks. If any part of the watch breaks down, the watch stops working.
But a complex system — for example, traffic — is different; it’s adaptive. If somebody pumps the brakes in traffic, it’s not like everybody just keeps going and slams into them. They also pump the brakes, and that affects the entire system.
According to Dr. Klass, this adaptation that we have in a complex system means that it’s not enough just to understand the constituent parts. You have to understand exactly how they interact with each other.
Which brings us (at long last) to Chaos. In common parlance, Chaos is defined as a state of utter confusion or disorder. In science, Chaos is a precise mathematical concept that describes a system that is difficult to predict, even though its current state completely determines its future state.
The contemporary American philosopher David Spangler explained it like this:
“We live in two worlds – order and chaos. In the world of order, we plan, reflect, and think about what to do next. In the world of chaos, things happen; we get things done, yet unpredictability persists. In one world, we like to think we are in control. In the other, we mingle together with increasing complexity, conflict, and uncertainty.”
Today’s world seems loaded with complexity, which requires us to be willing to approach problems in new and perhaps uncomfortable ways. You know…Change.
All clear now? If not, no worries; excellent minds are hard at work in the field of Chaos Theory, studying how small changes can have big effects on systems that are sensitive to initial conditions. Even a small change in the beginning state of a chaotic system can lead to significantly different results later on (commonly known as the “Butterfly Effect”; you know, a butterfly flaps its wings in Borneo, and it causes a tornado in Kansas.)
Chaotic systems can be difficult to predict, and the behavior of a chaotic system can appear random. Unsurprisingly, the result is that there are lots of things in the world that are nearly impossible to predict accurately and consistently. And since we humans really like predictability and consistency, this causes significant episodes of tummy pain.
For example, we often shake our fists at the failure of meteorologists to accurately forecast the weather. But weather is one wickedly complex system, and though forecasting has improved greatly (e.g., 5-day forecasts are now typically as accurate as 1-day forecasts), it probably will always be next to impossible to get long-term forecasts right on the money every time.
The same is true for stock market behavior, which can exhibit chaotic patterns due to the complex interactions between investors and market forces. Hence, one might well be circumspect toward those who guarantee ‘massive returns’ and ‘sure things’.
Closer to home (or chest), irregular heartbeats can be explained by chaotic dynamics within the electrical system of the heart, making them challenging to diagnose and treat. Clearly, we humans are complex systems, too.
I was hoping that this rumination would provide a clear path forward for surviving the world we find ourselves in. But the world — and all eight billion of us in it — is evidently made up of complex systems that resist easy answers and linear thinking.
For now, I guess the best we can do is realize that Change is constant, that Complexity is all around us, and that there is Chaos in the world…though perhaps less than we perceive. And while we’re at it, be more aware of the interactions between all of us, and adaptative as we possibly can.
Maybe it’s helpful to grant ourselves the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, the courage to change the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
Hmm…you know, that might make a great prayer. *
*Appreciation to Dr. Reinhold Niebuhr
Ronn Lehmann advises organizations and leaders on the human factors that determine their culture. Lehmann developed the Cultural Audit Process, which is designed to provide an outside perspective of an organization’s culture: what’s important, what’s rewarded and punished, what the rules are, and how people “show up.”
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